Quarterback Carousel

First off, happy Veterans Day, Grandpas. I miss you both.

Now to football. The quarterback carousel continues to spin. Everyone wants to know about how their team will do now that the new quarterback is under center. I’m going to look at three teams this week, the Eagles, Cardinals, and Texans and discuss the probable futures of each team.

Eagles

I am not worried one bit about the Eagles. I’m writing this after the Monday night where Sanchez went crazy, but don’t think I’m overreacting to one game here. Sanchez currently has a crazy high completion percentage for him. I’m fully expecting him to regress. Mark Sanchez has consistently been 4-6% below league average in terms of completion percentage depending on the year. We shouldn’t expect that he suddenly learned some profound bit of information about how to complete more passes. We should expect that he will return to his 4-6% below league average completion percentage over the course of the rest of the time he’s a starter in Philadelphia. But, you know who else was about 4-6% below league average completion percentage? Nick Foles. Honestly, I don’t see Sanchez being a detriment to the Eagles offense. I think Chip Kelly has a plan and that he is nothing if not adaptable. Philly will get through this leaning on their defense and their receivers.

Cardinals

The Cardinals are going to have more of a problem. The drop from Palmer to Stanton is going to be a much bigger drop than the drop from Foles to Sanchez. Stanton is consistently 3-4% poorer in completion percentage and he’s also not as effective throwing the ball down field. Palmer is generally league average in down field throws, but Stanton is more like bottom of the league in that category. Couple that with the fact that the Cardinals have really been punching above their weight up to this point in the season and you have a situation ripe for regression. The Cardinals should be very very worried.

Texans

The Houston Texans are the wild card. I did not see a quarterback switch coming for them. I’m not saying that Fitzpatrick is great. I know I predicted him to be a wildcard to lead the league in passing yards this year, but that prediction wasn’t as much based on him as it was everyone else around him. I believe I called him “serviceable” at the beginning of the year. And I still stand behind that assessment. He’s a little below average in completion percentage, but in an offense that’s more about throwing downfield than the average team we would expect that. Hopkins seems to be having a reasonable season and the team has already won twice as many games as it did last season.

Which is why I was very surprised to see that they’ll be going with Ryan Mallett for the foreseeable future. What exactly can Mallett offer you that Fitzpatrick can’t? Mallett has never started an NFL game and has thrown a total of 4 passes in an NFL game, one of which was intercepted. What can we even know about him?

Actually, we can know something about him since he played his college career recently enough to be part of my data set. I’ve even got a prediction about his career passer rating after four years in the banner up top (2011 draft class). The prediction in the banner is for a passer rating around 65. However, that prediction was based on a model I call “Mk. I” (Everyone seems to name their models and I’m an Iron Man fan). That model worked, but was based on Linear Regression and a data set that wasn’t as expertly cleaned as it could be.

Here’s what we learn about Ryan Mallett. I have a measure of college arm strength that helps differentiate quarterbacks. Mallett has the fourth highest score on that metric in a dataset that goes back to 2007. The three above him are Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson. However, arm strength is icing on the cake of an effective quarterback, but the cake itself. The cake of effective quarterbacking is accuracy and in that category, Mallett falls woefully short compared to the three other quarterbacks mentioned. When Mallett actually completes a pass, it goes for a long long ways. But he has tremendous trouble actually completing those passes. Basically, I see Mallett as Zach Mettenberger amplified. He’s got a cannon arm, but no ability to control it. The “Mk. III” model predicts his passer rating to be somewhere around 71. I think Fitzpatrick might be able to do a slight bit better.

2014 Passing Yardage Predictions – Part II

Categories: Fantasy, NFL, Statistics
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Published on: August 19, 2014

Welcome back everyone. I took last week off because some very important things were and still are happening in our country. I couldn’t bring myself to talk about a game overlaid on top of another game. It just seemed a little disconnected from the world at large. I think it’s important that we all stay reminded of the events happening in Ferguson, MO. That being said, it’s time to build an audience and nothing builds an audience like new content.

This week I finished a full set of projections for yardage totals of quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends. This new model makes two major corrections compared to the one I posed a couple weeks ago. First, it corrects for 2013 injuries. You’ll note that Julio Jones has a much higher predicted yardage total in this model compared to the previous one. Second, it corrects for changes to the offensive system. I’ll get to why this is important in a minute. For ease of viewing, I’ve added a new page to the banner so you can easily check these tables whenever you need to. Remember that these yardage totals assume the player in question plays all 16 games and any coaches that have changed jobs do not radically alter the schemes they’ve used in the past. I also want to throw out a big thank you to Jeff over at thefakefootball.com for the offensive coordinator history spreadsheet that made all these projections possible.

One very important caveat before we begin. I don’t have any historical data to check these predictions against. Jeff’s data on targets doesn’t go back far enough for me to do any historical checking on how accurate this model tends to be. So, I have no idea about the uncertainty inherent in this model. We’ll all be learning this together as the season goes on. After the season is over, we’ll check them together. Isn’t science fun?

Top Projected Wide Receivers – Receiving Yards

My first list of projections is for wide receivers, and that list doesn’t come with a lot of surprises. You’ve got your Andre Johnsons, your Dez Bryants, your Brandon Marshalls and your DeSean Jacksons at the top. I don’t really see a surprise on that list until I see Josh Gordan predicted at less than 1,000 yards – assuming he plays all 16 games. And even that is understandable given Cleveland’s quarterback situation. I’ll keep the list updated as depth charts change and injuries occur.

Top Projected Tight Ends – Receiving Yards

Once again, a lot of ho-hum on this list. Jimmy Graham will lead the league in tight end receiving yards, a Detroit Lion will follow him because Detroit will still throw the ball all over the place and defenses will try to lock down Calvin Johnson, blah-blah-blah. You’ll see Levine Toilolo third on that list, but I’m not sure I buy that specific prediction. The model is assuming that Toilolo will step in and take all of Tony Gonzalez’s targets which my human brain tells me isn’t going to happen. I have left that prediction as the model reports it for accuracy’s sake, but on that one, I think we have some justification to adjust it down a bit.

Top Projected Quarterbacks – Passing Yards

I went back and checked the results I’m about to tell you three different times. As I was doing that, I anthropomorphized the mathematical equation and called it a “little dickens” for trying to trick me. But there was no mistake. The inputs I fed into the model were all correct. Furthermore, all the other top five quarterbacks make perfect sense. Most of us expect Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, and Peyton Manning to have high yardage totals at the end of the season. But I didn’t expect the guy at #1 by a long shot. And so, without further ado, your projected 2014 NFL leader in passing yards – edging Peyton Manning by 98 yards – is…Houston’s Ryan Fitzpatrick.

You’d call a mathematical equation a “little dickens” too if it tried to trick you with such nonsense. After I saw it I looked up the prop bet odds on Ryan Fitzpatrick leading the NFL in passing yards and found that it’s such a ludicrous notion that Vegas isn’t giving action on such a proposition. It seems insane, but let’s keep an open mind and consider this for a second.

Once you think about it, there are several reasons why it makes sense that Ryan Fitzpatrick could lead the league in passing yards this year. First, we know something about what Bill O’Brien likes to do on offense. We know he likes to throw the football and his system is very effective at gaining yards through the air. Any system that makes Matt McGloin look that good has got to have something going for it. We also know that O’Brien provides a lot of opportunities to his best receivers and seems to be able to adapt the passing game around what he has. Second, Houston has the best receiving corps you will find outside of Denver or Chicago. From top to bottom, the wide receivers in Houston know how to get open and know how to get yards after the catch. This will be a second huge bonus to Fitzpatrick’s passing yards. Third, nobody really knows what the status of Arian Foster is. We know he’s busy trying to be the best teammate he can be, but can he still be the productive running back he once was? I have my doubts. And finally, I don’t want to count out the man himself. Fitzpatrick is a serviceable quarterback. He’s not going to take a team on his back or anything, but he’s not horrific either. There’s a reason he’s stuck around in the NFL so long.

So there you go. Lots of fairly boring expectations for receiving yards and one super out-of-left field prediction. Let the season begin!

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