It’s Manziel Time

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Published on: December 9, 2014

It’s Manziel time in Cleveland. I’ve discussed what I think of Cleveland in other posts. The short story is that I think the decisions of the Cleveland Browns front office resemble those a robot with a combination of dissociative identity disorder and schizophrenia. Once again we get to examine an important decision in Cleveland: the benching of Brian Hoyer in favor of Johnny Manziel. First, the facts.

Fact #1: Brian Hoyer has not been good this year

Not been good is putting it very mildly. Worst in the NFL is more correct. No quarterback has been allowed to be as inaccurate – 9.4% below league average – as Hoyer and still throw so many passes – 387 attempts. His inaccuracy is on par with Zach Mettenberger, Mike Glennon, Drew Stanton, and Ryan Mallett, all quarterbacks that began the year as back-ups and are unlikely to find permanent starting jobs any time soon. All in all, I don’t think much of Hoyer’s individual performance this year.

Fact #2: It is December and the Cleveland Browns have a winning record

At the time of this writing, Cleveland has a 7-6 record in the winningest division in football. By my quick reckoning, this has happened four other times in the last twenty years. Why does it matter if Brian Hoyer has been the worst quarterback in the league up to this point? You have won seven games with the worst quarterback, something must be working. Cleveland’s pass defense is coming up big week after week, they’ve got a group of receivers that showed they can spar with the best of them, and their running game has shown signs of life throughout the season. You got to seven wins doing something right. Why are you throwing that away now?

Fact #3: We don’t know what Manziel will do over three games

No one has any idea what Johnny Manziel will do during the final three games of the season. I have a prediction of Manziel’s quarterback rating of 76.6, but that’s over four years not three games. What is the purpose of upsetting everything that the Browns have built over the course of the season on the scant hope that Manziel can help you out? No one has any algorithm that says Manziel will be any better or worse than Hoyer over these final three games. And it is very possible that Manziel could be worse.

Fact #4: Coaching tenure in Cleveland

Perhaps the number that actually explains what is going on here. The average tenure over the last three head coaches in Cleveland has been a glorious 1.67 years. Mike Pettine likely doesn’t want to lower that average even further than it already is. He knows that sticking with Hoyer will likely get him a .500 team. Perhaps he sees the writing on the wall and knows that .500 won’t be enough to save his job. I don’t know that is the case, but I wouldn’t put it past the Cleveland management.

 photo blitzwing.jpg

2014 Draft in Review

This will probably be my last post before I go into summer hibernation to work on my receiver model. I was going to review the first round pf the draft, but that’s been done to death at this point. There isn’t much to be gained from rehashing all the details. Instead, I only want to talk about two teams, the Minnesota Vikings and Cleveland Browns.

Minnesota Vikings

Regular readers know that the Vikings are my team. They’re the team I grew up watching and the logo  on the blanket currently draping my couch. So when the Vikings traded up back into the first round, I reacted emotionally. The reaction was about the trade-up, not the actual pick itself. I was worried the Vikings had learned the wrong lesson from their experience in the draft last year.

Last year, the Vikings gave up a number of picks to move back into the first round and make a third selection in the first round. For doing this, they were applauded, given high post-draft marks, and given general kudos all around. The problem is that the actual move was a terrible one. And the reason the 2013 trade was terrible was the number of picks they gave up to make it. Every single credible analyst has shown that the way to get the most value out of the draft is to make more picks (see this new, inventive analysis showing how number of picks predicts total draft value). So the psychological problem is a problem of reinforcement. The Vikings made a move. In the short term, they were told that this move was a great idea. However, the negative consequences of the move they made will either never be realized because the Patriots rarely play the Vikings, or they won’t be felt for three to four years down the road, which is far too long to learn something from reinforcement. And not only that, but the Vikings got incredibly lucky that their target in the trade up is showing promise as a wide receiver and kick returner. All this is positive reinforcement for making a trade up more likely in the future.

I was worried that the Vikings had learned the wrong lesson from their experience last year. I was worried they were going to give up a two to three picks to move back up into the first round as they did last year and then not recoup those picks in the later part of the draft. I’m very happy to say I was wrong. At the end of the draft the Vikings had made, by my count, the 4th most picks of any team in the draft. That’s a path to success through the draft if ever there was one.

As for the actual pick itself, I don’t mind the Vikings picking Bridgewater. My model isn’t precise enough to get upset about a difference between a predicted passer rating of 80 vs. 75. Good luck to the Vikings in the 2014 season.

Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns are run by Blitzwing from Transformers: Animated. If you don’t know Transformers, Blitzwing is a triple-changer. He has forms of a jet, a tank, and a robot. To drive home the “triple” metaphor, the character has three distinct personalities. One of them is cunning, cold, and calculating, one of them is emotional and explosive, and one is completely wack-a-doodle. Or, as my 4-year-old nephew named them, Smart, Dumb, and Scary.

 photo blitzwing.jpgAny move the Browns make seems to fit into one of these three categories and you can never tell which personality is going to be in control for any specific decision. They achieve great outcomes, but project this image of ineptitude. They do really smart things to set up the situation in their favor, but then bungle the execution.  You could do Homer-Buying-the-Cursed-Krusty-Doll for an entire day with this team.

They commissioned a $100,000 study that (supposedly) said Bridgewater was the best quarterback in the draft.

That’s good!

They released the results of that study before the draft.

That’s bad.

They entered the draft with 10 selections.

That’s good!

They ended the draft selecting 6 players.

That’s bad.

They traded down with the Bills and secured picks in future drafts.

That’s good!

They gave up a pick to move one spot up.

That’s bad.

They selected Manziel with the 22nd pick.

That’s good!

They outbid three other teams to trade up to get there.

That’s bad.

They signed Joe Haden, one of the best DB’s in the league to a big contract.

That’s good!

They also signed Miles Austin, a 30-year-old, oft injured wide receiver who hasn’t been productive since 2010.

That’s bad.

But he came with a free frogurt.

That’s good!

The frogurt is also cursed.

Can I go now?

How can a franchise make such good decisions at one time and such bad decisions 15 minutes later? Being run by a robot in disguise with dissociative identity disorder is the only possibility I could come up with.

Player Profile: Johnny Manziel

Categories: NCAA FBS, NFL Draft, Statistics
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Published on: January 8, 2014

Player:  Johnny Manziel

School:  Texas A&M

Year:  Sophomore

Career CAA:  41.7

Predicted 4-Year NFL Rating:  76.5

Predicted 4-Year NFL ANY/A:  4.97

The most polarizing prospect in the 2014 draft declared today.  The gloriously nicknamed Johnny Football.  I’m not going to tell you much you don’t already know.  Some people love his skill set.  Others think his skills won’t translate to the next level.  I’m going to come down right in the middle.

My biggest concern is that Manziel has very little experience compared to the rest of the class. By my reckoning, he had a very good season in 2013.  But that doesn’t mean that I think he’s a wonderful prospect worthy of a first round pick.  If he had another season in college that was similar to last season, maybe we would have something.  Alas, we don’t.

But that also doesn’t mean he won’t be a good NFL quarterback.  He showed skills this year – an ability to be accurate and an ability to improve on accuracy from year to year.

Take Home Point

This sounds like the most wishy-washy evaluation.  I don’t love him, I don’t hate him.  He’s just a giant lump of there that refuses to go away.  But that’s where I have him.  A middling prospect that everyone seems to want to talk about.

Do you draft him?

Not where he’s going to go.

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