Wide Receivers

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Upper page: 2015 Draft Class

Table shows results of a two parameter Bayesian regression model attempting to predict a wide receiver’s yards per attempt away from league average after controlling for quarterback and offensive system.

This model does NOT account for depth of target, which is an important confound for the CAA column.  As such, do not trust WR high on this list with large, negative CAA values.

The best WR prospects are those with positive CAA (Completions  Away from Average) and positive RYAA (Receiving Yards Away from Average)

SchoolFirst NameLast NameCAARYAA4_Year
Northern IllinoisDa'RonBrown-31.83.10.89
ArizonaAustinHill3.9525.40.71
Kansas StateTylerLockett8.9440.80.62
OhioChaseCochran-0.3498.30.62
Ohio StateEvanSpencer-18-3850.6
UCFBreshadPerriman-7.4591.50.59
AlabamaAmariCooper4.4427.80.57
LouisvilleDeVanteParker-8.9590.40.56
UABJamarcusNelson-20.4153.10.52
HoustonDeontayGreenberry-18.437.80.52
Central MichiganTitusDavis-12.66900.51
San Diego StateEzellRuffin-3400.10.49
Ohio StateDevinSmith-13.5648.60.48
AuburnSammieCoates-21.2264.10.48
Southern CaliforniaNelsonAgholor-0.6365.20.46
UtahDresAnderson-16.6164.40.46
KansasNickHarwell2.9355.60.46
Arizona StateJaelenStrong-15.5127.90.45
South FloridaAndreDavis-1552.90.44
KansasNigelKing-15-67.10.44
DukeJamisonCrowder-10.5328.40.44
Florida AtlanticWilliamDukes-13.4274.30.43
East CarolinaCamWorthy-7.5322.50.43
Miami (Fla.)PhillipDorsett-12.9260.90.43
West VirginiaMarioAlford-13.6179.10.42
Fresno StateJoshHarper1.1329.20.42
MissouriJimmieHunt5.6330.90.42
South AlabamaShavarezSmith-6.1304.20.41
Miami (Ohio)DawanScott-3301.20.4
UNLVDevanteDavis-22.8429.40.39
Ole MissVinceSanders3309.60.39
GeorgiaChrisConley-1.42890.38
ConnecticutGeremyDavis1.9299.70.38
Texas-El PasoIanHamilton-6.6251.10.38
MarylandStefonDiggs11.5312.10.37
South CarolinaDamiereByrd-9.7173.90.37
Washington StateVinceMayle-7.9214.30.37
KentuckyJavessBlue-0.1278.40.36
NebraskaKennyBell-3.8252.10.36
SyracuseJarrodWest-7.3188.40.34
UCFJ.J.Worton8.8293.10.34
Michigan StateTonyLippett4.3274.10.33
Boise StateMattMiller5.3274.40.33
East CarolinaJustinHardy1.9257.20.32
HoustonDanielSpencer-2.6225.60.32
Notre DameDaVarisDaniels-11.5-75.80.32
North Carolina StateBryanUnderwood-10.7-2.90.32
TulsaKeyarrisGarrett-9.854.80.32
Michigan StateKeithMumphery-2.6220.70.32
UL LafayetteJamalRobinson-4.5176.40.3
West VirginiaKevinWhite-8.941.50.29
UCFRannellHall-9.12.90.28
MarylandDeonLong5.1242.80.28
HoustonMarkeithAmbles-3.5156.50.27
IllinoisMartizeBarr-10.7-150.10.27
NorthwesternTonyJones-10.4-119.10.27
ConnecticutShakimPhillips-5.6108.80.26
Brigham YoungJordanLeslie-8.7-8.20.26
NevadaRichyTurner-9.1-33.30.26
MichiganDevinFunchess-8.42.60.26
IowaDamondPowell-21610.25
AkronZachD'Orazio-1.6156.90.24
Boise StateDallasBurroughs-8.9-69.70.24
FloridaQuintonDunbar-3125.30.23
Texas TechBradleyMarquez-8.6-96.20.21
UtahAndreLewis-7.3-40.30.2
MissouriBudSasser3.1171.60.19
TempleJalenFitzpatrick-3.374.60.19
FloridaAndreDebose-2.297.20.19
RiceJordanTaylor0.5138.60.19
MemphisKeiwoneMalone10.1216.10.19
CaliforniaChrisHarper-5.180.18
Brigham YoungRossApo-7.4-92.10.18
Utah StateRonaldButler8.9203.90.17
UtahKaelinClay-359.30.17
KansasJustinMcCay-7.6-133.30.16
MinnesotaIsaacFruechte-6.6-96.50.14
OregonKeanonLowe-7-142.70.13
Florida StateChristianGreen-6.3-1090.13
BaylorAntwanGoodley-4.7-51.20.12
OklahomaDorialGreen-Beckham-1.246.20.11
MichiganDevinGardner-4.3-39.40.11
Miami (Fla.)RashawnScott0.561.60.09
GeorgiaJonathonRumph050.30.09
WashingtonDiAndreCampbell-3.9-52.20.09
WashingtonKasenWilliams-1.124.80.09
AlabamaDeAndrewWhite1.168.10.09
Georgia TechDeAndreSmelter-2.2-7.90.08
Stony BrookAdrianCoxson-0.140.10.08
Indiana (PA)DrewCarswell-3-36.80.08
IndianaShaneWynn141810.07
PittsburghManassehGarner-3.2-55.90.06
BaylorClayFuller-3.2-660.06
ArkansasDemetriusWilson-0.38.20.05
Georgia TechDarrenWaller0.417.90.04
TennesseeJacobCarter1.127.30.04
Mississippi StateJameonLewis0.717.10.03
UCFJackieWilliams7.2111.50.03
Florida StateRashadGreene10.5140.30.03
NebraskaJamalTurner-1-26.80.03
Southern CaliforniaGeorgeFarmer1.934.80.03
FordhamTebuckyJones-1.4-47.60.02
UNLVMarcusSullivan-2-66.20.02
North TexasDariusTerrell1.3100.01
TCUDavidPorter9.2111.90
StanfordTyMontgomery-6.1-287.3-0.01
KansasTonyPierson3.944.4-0.01
MissouriDariusWhite2.49-0.02
NorthwesternKylePrater2.81.9-0.04
Appalachian StateTacoiSumler1.5-25.6-0.04
Miami (Ohio)DavidFrazier4.313.6-0.07
VirginiaDominiqueTerrell624.9-0.09
Florida AtlanticLuckyWhitehead10.476.2-0.1
LouisvilleRobertClark0.5-106.2-0.11
Texas A&MMalcomeKennedy-2.7-238-0.13
AlabamaChristionJones-0.7-157.8-0.13
Washington StateKristoffWilliams6-27.6-0.18
TexasJaxonShipley15.271.5-0.21
WyomingDominicRufran10-4.4-0.25
GeorgiaMichaelBennett4.2-142.3-0.3
San Jose StateJabariCarr3.3-188.5-0.33
IowaKevonteMartin-Manley5.5-134.1-0.34
AuburnQuanBray16.6-118.2-0.71
Northern IllinoisTommyleeLewis11.7-237.4-0.79
BaylorLeviNorwood17.8-142-0.82
ClemsonAdamHumphries12.1-276.5-0.89
MarshallTommyShuler14.7-241.6-0.93
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