Bills Bench E.J. Manuel: What’s the Plan?

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Published on: September 30, 2014

The Buffalo Bills have benched their starting quarterback and hope of the franchise, 2013 edition, E.J. Manuel. We don’t know if we’ll ever see him on a professional football field again. As of this writing, Manuel has a career passer rating of 78.5 and a career adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) of 5.9. But this post isn’t about E.J. Manuel and what he has or hasn’t done on the football field.

My prediction of where E.J. Manuel would be after four years in the league was a passer rating of 74.8 with an ANY/A around 4.8. By my estimation he’s performed right about where I expected, maybe even a little better on ANY/A. But one case doesn’t prove the worth of a process and this post isn’t about me.

This post is about the Bills’ front office. I’m very curious what they expected of E.J. Manuel. In fact, I’m curious what they expected of their entire football team. Did they believe that, in 2012 when they went 6-10 that they were just a few players away from contending for a playoff spot? Did they truly believe that when they haven’t had a winner record since 2004?

I wonder what they expected on draft day in 2013. They drafted a new quarterback, certainly, but they’d also drafted a couple wide receivers in Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin. I wonder if they considered how difficult it would be to evaluate the performance of a new quarterback when both quarterback and receivers were changing. I wonder how much hope existed in the draft room on that day and on what evidence that hope rested. I wonder if they felt the same way at the end of the 2014 draft when they had given away their 2015 first round pick to Cleveland to draft another new wide receiver in Sammy Watkins.

I wonder if, when making the decision to bench E.J. Manuel, the decision makers in the Bills organization thought about benching Robert Woods instead, a player I have currently rated as the 203rd best pass receiver in the NFL. I wonder if someone is thinking, “We threw the ball Wood’s way 12 times this week and gained a total of 17 yards on those 12 attempts. I wonder if the receiver had any impact at all on such a stat line.”

I wonder what the decision makers in Buffalo expect from Kyle Orton, a player whose career per attempt statistics look remarkably similar to the guy he’s replacing. What exactly do they think is going to happen here? We have a pretty good idea what Kyle Orton is going to do with a football in his hands. And we also know that Orton is old enough and experienced enough that he probably isn’t going to get much better. Manuel, whatever his faults might have, at least has a chance to improve.

So much in the sports world comes down to expectations. We expect E.J. Manuel to be good because he was the first quarterback taken in the 2013 draft, and the only quarterback taken in the first round. But why did we expect so much of E.J. Manuel? Because of how much someone else valued him? Because of what we thought we saw during his college days? Sadly, human minds cannot correctly weigh those expectations. Data is needed so that we don’t let our expectations interfere with our ability to make the best decision we can at this exact moment.

Mostly, Buffalo Bills decision makers, I wonder…

 

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