Beholden to Talented Shitheads: Why We Need Analytics

Categories: General Info, NFL
Comments: 1 Comment
Published on: September 9, 2014

I hope everyone is enjoying the new football season. I’m glad to see the Vikings are 1-0 and the defense looked good, although, it was against the Rams so I’m not sure that means all that much.

I don’t have much to talk about in the way of numbers today. We’ve got one week worth of NFL data which will tell us largely nothing about how the rest of the season will play out and we’ve got two weeks of college football data which will tell us something so minor that we probably shouldn’t bother right now.

Instead, I thought I would talk about one of the more important social issues surrounding football right now. I want to talk about Ray Rice and, specifically, what Ray Rice shows us about the importance of adopting analytic strategies for selecting members of organizations.

Many people think that businesses use analytic strategies like skill testing and personality testing because the tests tell you which individual is the most talented, most productive, most useful potential employee and the business then selects the person who comes out on top of the most important tests. And if you think that, you’d be sort-of right about how the process works, but you’d also be sort of wrong.

Most businesses that use analytic strategies use their tests not to find a single individual, but instead to narrow the pool of possible individuals. Tests are used to cull the group, but they generally aren’t used to make a final decision. High scores are necessary to land the job, but they aren’t sufficient. Once the tests identify the proper pool of applications comes the next, and most vital question an interviewing team can ask, “Can we all work with this person?” Fit within the work culture and ability to get along with co-workers is critical to building a functional organization. Any business using this strategy needs to be very careful that their answers to whether they can work with different people are not biased in ways that violate Civil Rights laws or any moral principles that the company holds to, but in general that’s how companies use tests to select employees. Test them all, generate a pool, but don’t select based solely on high scores but rather on more human elements.

That’s the first way analytics helps you build your organization. You can be sure of selecting talented people that are actually the kind of people you want to work with. And that could be important if you’re trying to build a football team. Many coaches seem to have very high minded policies about avoiding players with domestic violence histories. And while they seem to stick to those principles to greater or lesser degrees depending on the talent of the player in question, we can at least see how this would work. If your analytic strategy returns two players as equally likely to succeed and one of them has a history of domestic violence, you probably go with the other one. But that’s not why NFL teams need to quickly adopt analytics.

Using analytics to select employees is critical when one of your talented and valuable employees makes a mistake so horrendous, so unspeakable that it makes you rethink whether or not you would be able to work with that person ever again. Enter our connection to Ray Rice.

What Ray Rice did was unspeakable. But how the Ravens and the NFL responded to the situation is just as unspeakable. And while I can’t speculate on what was going through Rice’s head when he committed his act, I have been associated with enough employee selection meetings to have a guess at what the Ravens were thinking prior to cutting him.

The Ravens, and all NFL teams, are in an industry where talent is incredibly difficult to identify. Highly trained NFL scouts get evaluations of talent wrong every season. It’s a terrible job to try to be good at because almost no one truly knows what it takes to be a great football player. If the organization can’t reliably identify talent, it becomes very guarded about the talent that has fallen into its lap. And when organizations have limited confidence in their ability to find new talent, they are more willing to forgive egregious actions from the talent they actually have. In essence, organizations can become beholden to talented shitheads.

Selecting players using analytic strategies can break that cycle. When a talented member of the organization moves into territory that the rest of the organization can’t follow, it is a simple matter to separate from that person, regenerate a new pool of potential applicants, and begin the selection process all over again. We don’t have to run our rationalizer ragged trying to find reasons why Action X might be morally repugnant, but doesn’t justify removal of the person from the organization. Instead, the incentives for talented individuals to act like a shitheads evaporate. The organization can afford to be less risk-averse when problems with talented players emerge. If the Ravens had a large scale analytics-based selection process they could have cut Rice in February and found two or three shiny new running backs. Instead, we have the nonsense we all saw this week. Honestly, I fail to see how the status quo is better.

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  1. […] Last week I wrote about one of the great benefits to using statistical methods for employee selection. Basically, using math to find people means it is much easier to find other people should the ones you originally find not work out socially. That’s a great boon to employers in a typical workplace. They become less beholden to talent. Talented people no longer become insulated from the consequences of socially unacceptable acts. And, for any typical place of employment, that works quite well. However, I did not consider in that piece that the NFL is not a typical place of employment. Professional football has some troubling facts associated with it. As a psychology professor, I know all about what brain damage to the prefrontal cortex can do to an individual. Increased emotional reactivity and impulsivity are just the tip of the iceberg. I wonder if this game is destroying the lives of the people that play it. And I worry that anyone that works to identify and project success from one level of football to another, including myself, may be complicit in that destruction. […]

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