2014 NFL Passing and Receiving Yard Predictions

Last time I broke down which rookie wide receivers and pass catching tight ends have the most talent. Now it’s time to get to the heart of the matter. In this post I will present a preliminary model that predicts total receiving yards for wide receivers and tight ends and total passing yards for quarterbacks. In the first pass through the data, I’ll be strictly using information from the 2013 NFL season. I’m not readjusting for previous injuries that kept a player off the field (e.g. Julio Jones & Reggie Wayne) nor am I readjusting based on the difference between early and late season play (e.g. Cordarrelle Patterson, though the opposite of what you’re probably thinking). I’ll make a more robust prediction once the depth charts are a little more settled.

To make this prediction I entered variables that represent quarterback ability (broadly construed), receiver ability (broadly construed), and number of targets into a Bayesian multiple regression analysis. If you’re interested in some of the technical details of the Bayesian analysis, they can be found at the bottom of this post. For the general reader, in the past, those variables have explained about 33% of differences in yardage totals and been off by an average of 300 yards. Also be aware that this model constricts the range of the predictions. It tends to underestimate the high end and overestimate the low end. The reason for the constriction can be found in the technical details.

The first table shows predictions for wide receivers. To get into this table, a wide receiver had to have been the target of at least one pass during the 2013 season and be listed as at least the 4th wide receiver on the projected depth chart according to CBS Sports as of July 24th. You can argue with me about that decision all you want. I made it entirely because I only have so many hours in my day and somebody else had projected some line-ups.

Wide Receivers

RankTeamFirst NameLast NameProjected Yards
1PittsburghAntonioBrown1014.3
2DenverDemaryiusThomas1012.7
3Tampa BayVincentJackson989.9
4HoustonAndreJohnson981.2
5ChicagoAlshonJeffery973.7
6CincinnatiA.J.Green954.4
7San DiegoKeenanAllen948.8
8Green BayJordyNelson947.7
9AtlantaHarryDouglas940.7
10WashingtonPierreGarcon940.2
11ChicagoBrandonMarshall930.6
12New OrleansKennyStills914.8
13DetroitCalvinJohnson898.2
14New OrleansMarquesColston886
15SeattlePercyHarvin876.8
16San DiegoMalcomFloyd873.8
17DallasDezBryant857.9
18ArizonaMichaelFloyd826.9
19BaltimoreTorreySmith804.7
20New EnglandJulianEdelman803.9
21IndianapolisT.Y.Hilton801
22WashingtonDeSeanJackson800.1
23AtlantaJulioJones795.1
24San DiegoEddieRoyal791.7
25AtlantaRoddyWhite781.2
26ArizonaLarryFitzgerald779
27DenverEmmanuelSanders768.1
28MiamiBrianHartline766.5
29MiamiMikeWallace758.1
30San FranciscoAnquanBoldin757.6
31HoustonDeAndreHopkins748
32DenverWesWelker747.5
33New OrleansRobertMeachem740.4
34PhiladelphiaRileyCooper730.5
35Green BayJarrettBoykin715.2
36OaklandRodStreater713.2
37IndianapolisHakeemNicks709.9
38JacksonvilleCecilShorts699.4
39DallasTerranceWilliams699.1
40SeattleDougBaldwin697.1
41New York GiantsVictorCruz691.4
42TennesseeKendallWright684.7
43New York JetsEricDecker677.2
44CincinnatiMarvinJones676.5
45San DiegoVincentBrown658.6
46Kansas CityDwayneBowe647.1
47Kansas CityDonnieAvery641
48DetroitGoldenTate632.7
49OaklandJamesJones631.6
50TennesseeNateWashington629.3
51MinnesotaGregJennings622.6
52New EnglandDannyAmendola612
53ArizonaTedGinn610.2
54MinnesotaJariusWright601.7
55OaklandDenariusMoore596
56CarolinaTiquanUnderwood596
57Green BayRandallCobb595.5
58New EnglandBrandonLaFell592.2
59MinnesotaJeromeSimpson591
60CarolinaJerrichoCotchery588.9
61BaltimoreSteveSmith586.6
62PittsburghLanceMoore586.1
63IndianapolisReggieWayne578.1
64New EnglandAaronDobson553.1
65San FranciscoSteveJohnson544.2
66JacksonvilleAceSanders536.5
67ChicagoMarquessWilson530.7
68New York GiantsRuebenRandle528.9
69BaltimoreMarlonBrown524.4
70MiamiRishardMatthews520.2
71SeattleJermaineKearse519.3
72New EnglandKenbrellThompkins518.9
73WashingtonSantanaMoss512.2
74CincinnatiMohamedSanu506.6
75OaklandGregLittle505.5
76BuffaloRobertWoods504.9
77WashingtonAndreRoberts502.3
78DallasColeBeasley499.8
79BaltimoreJacobyJones495.1
80St. LouisChrisGivens484.2
81AtlantaDariusJohnson477.3
82ClevelandAndrewHawkins470.4
83DetroitKrisDurham460.2
84MinnesotaCordarrellePatterson454.3
85ClevelandNateBurleson446.7
86ChicagoJoshMorgan445.6
87St. LouisBrianQuick441.1
88HoustonKeshawnMartin425.3
89New York JetsJeremyKerley423.8
90Tampa BayChrisOwusu422.4
91San FranciscoMichaelCrabtree410.3
92ArizonaJaronBrown408.8
93St. LouisTavonAustin398.2
94St. LouisAustinPettis395.1
95BuffaloT.J.Graham393.4
96Kansas CityA.J.Jenkins385.6
97New York GiantsJerrelJernigan384.3
98HoustonDeVierPosey380.4
99CincinnatiDaneSanzenbacher377.3
100New York JetsDavidNelson366.6
101TennesseeJustinHunter353.4
102Kansas CityJuniorHemingway345.6
103CarolinaJasonAvant342.1
104New York JetsStephenHill311.5
105PittsburghMarkusWheaton300.7
106DallasDwayneHarris298
107Tampa BayLouisMurphy256.5
108DetroitRyanBroyles252.3
109San FranciscoQuintonPatton249.2
110BuffaloMikeWilliams246.8
111ClevelandMilesAustin230.6

Remember that this table is entirely derived from last year’s data. Some of those predictions may be too high (Harry Douglas, T.Y. Hilton, possibly Vincent Jackson) and others too low, but all in all, it’s a decent list.

Tight Ends

RankTeamFirst NameLast NameProjected Yards
1New OrleansJimmyGraham992.1
2San DiegoLadariusGreen855.4
3San DiegoAntonioGates853.5
4DenverJuliusThomas768.8
5ChicagoMartellusBennett717.3
6CarolinaGregOlsen689.9
7MiamiCharlesClay676
8DallasJasonWitten670.4
9Tampa BayBrandonMyers667.2
10San FranciscoVernonDavis660.6
11ClevelandJordanCameron651.7
12PittsburghHeathMiller646.1
13PhiladelphiaBrentCelek639.6
14New EnglandRobGronkowski627.5
15IndianapolisCobyFleener584.3
16HoustonGarrettGraham579.2
17ArizonaRobHousler568.1
18New OrleansBenjaminWatson565.6
19WashingtonJordanReed561.7
20BuffaloScottChandler557.2
21St. LouisJaredCook546.8
22CincinnatiTylerEifert530.8
23CincinnatiJermaineGresham523.3
24ArizonaJohnCarlson495.4
25JacksonvilleMarcedesLewis493.2
26Green BayAndrewQuarless479.9
27HoustonRyanGriffin477.5
28CarolinaEdDickson470.8
29SeattleZachMiller461.6
30TennesseeDelanieWalker447.6
31JacksonvilleClayHarbor447.4
32OaklandMychalRivera445.7
33DallasGavinEscobar441.8
34IndianapolisDwayneAllen438.5
35DetroitBrandonPettigrew432
36New York JetsJeffCumberland428.4
37MinnesotaKyleRudolph395.9
38Kansas CityAnthonyFasano389.9
39BaltimoreOwenDaniels363.6
40AtlantaBearPascoe345.2
41PhiladelphiaJamesCasey333.4
42AtlantaLevineToilolo319.2
43PittsburghMattSpaeth295
44ClevelandJimDray293.3
45BaltimoreDennisPitta292.9
46ChicagoMatthewMulligan287.5
47WashingtonNilesPaul285.5
48MiamiMichaelEgnew278.8
49DenverVirgilGreen254
50MinnesotaRhettEllison251.8
51San FranciscoVanceMcDonald238.5
52St. LouisCoryHarkey202.7
53New York GiantsKellenDavis202.5
54TennesseeCraigStevens-136.3

Couple weird things about this table. First is the insane yardage totals for both Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green. Green was very good last year in limited usage. Gates has been very productive for a very long time. The question for 2014 production among those two individuals is who is going to get the targets. Green’s prediction is driven by assuming great talent but limited targets. Gate’s prediction is driven by assuming many targets, but declining ability due to age. It will be very interesting to see how the tight end battle in San Diego sorts itself out. You’ll also see that one prediction is negative. The model is unimpressed with everything associated with Tennessee’s offense and makes no apologies for it.

Quarterbacks

RankTeamFirst NameLast NameProjected Passing Yards
1San DiegoPhilipRivers5067.0
2New OrleansDrewBrees4746.6
3DenverPeytonManning4181.0
4ChicagoJayCutler3954.7
5Green BayAaronRodgers3943.2
6New EnglandTomBrady3774.6
7SeattleRussellWilson3773.2
8ArizonaCarsonPalmer3758.1
9IndianapolisAndrewLuck3754.0
10AtlantaMattRyan3720.9
11WashingtonRobertGriffin III3666.6
12HoustonRyanFitzpatrick3661.6
13CincinnatiAndyDalton3633.4
14MiamiRyanTannehill3632.7
15DallasTonyRomo3535.7
16Tampa BayJoshMcCown3535.0
17OaklandMattSchaub3525.7
18PhiladelphiaNickFoles3477.3
19PittsburghBenRoethlisberger3474.6
20JacksonvilleChadHenne3381.3
21CarolinaCamNewton3321.1
22DetroitMatthewStafford3306.0
23BaltimoreJoeFlacco3130.7
24Kansas CityAlexSmith3045.4
25New York GiantsEliManning3009.3
26MinnesotaMattCassel2984.6
27San FranciscoColinKaepernick2926.1
28BuffaloE.J.Manuel2905.8
29New York JetsGenoSmith2843.3
30ClevelandBrianHoyer2727.6
31TennesseeJakeLocker2604.6
32St. LouisSamBradford2534.0

Philip Rivers is the top of this list, largely because the model is unsure what is going on with the tight end situation in San Diego and is just sort of throwing up its hands. That being said, Rivers was really, really good last year and has an impressive cast to throw to. Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd are quality veterans while Ladarius Green and Keenan Allen are up and coming rookies that had remarkable seasons last year. I’d be high on Philip Rivers.

That’s all for our first jump into predicting the 2014 season. Near the end of the pre-season, I’ll have a more robust prediction based on more accurate depth charts.

Technical details

The Bayesian model began with weakly informative priors. Receiver yardage totals follow a gamma distribution. In an attempt to simulate a long-tailed distribution, the dependent variable was assumed to be t-distributed. The equation was trained on data from the 2011 season predicting 2012 yardage totals and then evaluated with 2012 season data predicting 2013 yardage totals. Average deviation of the prediction from the actual in the evaluation data was 314 yards.

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  1. […] receivers, and tight ends. This new model makes two major corrections compared to the one I posed a couple weeks ago. First, it corrects for 2013 injuries. You’ll note that Julio Jones has a much higher predicted […]

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