Fantasy Football Advice: October 1, 2013

Categories: Fantasy, NFL, Statistics
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Published on: October 1, 2013

I haven’t done much fantasy football advice, mostly because I hadn’t spent the time to build the mathematical models necessary to do it.  However, I recently got a receiver model working.  And it works very well.  If my research paper gets accepted to Sloan, I will share every gory mathematical detail with you, but you don’t have time for that.  Sloan isn’t until March and you need a quality receiver now.

You will want to pick up Keenan Allen.  You will want to do this because he is a very good wide receiver who is likely to have a very good year.  Let’s look at the numbers.

First, Philip Rivers has been ridiculous the first quarter of the season.  He’s seen his completion percentage go drastically up this season compared to last.  For receivers to get yards, they need a quarterback that can complete some passes, so that’s our first clue.

Second, Allen himself has flashed ability to catch well and gain good yards after catch, which is also a plus.

Third, with Malcolm Floyd out on season-ending IR, Keenan Allen will be seeing the field more.  More time on the field means more opportunities to be a pass target means more opportunities for yards.

Here are the projections.

Assuming Philip Rivers continues his crazy huge completion percentage and Allen keeps his crazy yards after catch average, Keenan Allen is projected to have a 1,000 yard season.

But maybe that’s too much to ask so…assuming Philip Rivers has a year of completing passes on par with his worst year in the league and Keenan Allen keeps getting YAC comparable to where he is now, Keenan Allen is projected to have a 700 yard season.

Assuming Philip Rivers has a historically average season for him and Keenan Allen regresses to an average receiver, Allen is projected to have a 650 yard season.

All these projections assume Allen remains the #3 receiver in San Diego, which I don’t think will happen, but let’s keep these projections as “worst case” predictions.

So, need a receiver?  His name is Keenan Allen.

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