2013 Draft Predictions

I’ve added a new section for all the data lovers.  The numbers section has full Completions Away from Average data on all quarterbacks in NCAA FBS football for the 2012 season.  Of course that information will change with bowls, but I won’t update it again until the national championship game is over.

Along with that, I thought it was high time to start talking 2013 draft.  I put up one post that examined talent in the 2013 quarterback class.  That post only looked at data from the 2012 season up through the end of October.  Now we have full career data on all quarterbacks in the draft and can make some good predictions. These picks are based on a regression equation that predicts NFL Passer Rating after 3 years in the NFL.

#1)  Zac Dysert – Miami (OH)

Career CAA – 91.53

2012 CAA – 6.96

Zac has had a difficult 2012.  It’s actually been his worst season of his college career.  That being said, he’s still the most likely of all the draft class to succeed at the next level, according to the equation.  Hopefully he goes to a team that can recognize and use his considerable talents.

#2)  Ryan Aplin – Arkansas State

Career CAA – 83.78

2012 CAA – 29.46

Ryan Aplin will be the steal of the 2013 draft, assuming he gets drafted at all.  No website I look at has him higher than the 11th quarterback and most have him considerably lower.  And all he’s done to get such low ratings is do everything every prognosticator has ever asked of him.  Assuming he gets drafted and assuming he gets some reasonable playing time, look for big things from this guy

#3) Sean Renfree – Duke

Career  CAA – 66.66

2012 CAA – 1.48

Another quarterback that has had a great career, but not a great 2012.  If Sean can regain the form he showed in 2010 and 2011, he is likely to be a success in the NFL.

#4)  Ryan Griffin – Tulane

Career CAA – 47.33

2012 CAA – 22.39

Another quarterback nobody’s talking about, but is likely to be a success in the NFL as long as he gets some playing time.  I wasn’t kidding when I said I thought everyone was looking in the wrong place for quarterback talent this year, eh?

#5)  Ryan Nassib – Syracuse

Career CAA – 44.77

2012 CAA – 6.99

Finally, a player somebody is seriously talking about as a possible first rounder.  Ryan is an interesting player in that most of this prediction comes from his junior season.  The question for Ryan is if the junior season was a one time thing or if he can regain that form.

Honorable Mentions (6-10)

Austin Dantin – Toledo

Dalton Williams – Akron

Aaron Murray – Georgia

B.R. Holbrook – New Mexico

Jeff Tuel – Washington State

Underclassmen to Watch

Keith Price – Washington

In a just world, Keith Price would win a Heisman Trophy for his performance this year, enter the draft, and be a first round pick.  Sadly, the world is not just.  Even if he did enter the draft, he probably wouldn’t go very high, wouldn’t get to play much, and a great talent would be wasted.  Hopefully he starts to generate some buzz next season because his talent is through the roof.

Rakeem Cato – Marshall

Two great years at Marshall and hoping for more.

Brett Hundley – UCLA

As a freshman, Brett posted the second highest CAA for the 2012 season.  Thanks to the large market that UCLA brings, this guy will probably pick up a lot of buzz next season.

4 Comments - Leave a comment
  1. abe says:

    I’ve seen videos of Ryan Aplin and I think he could be a great QB with the right coaches. I definitely see talent in the guy.

  2. […] in the 2013 draft.  I’ve already said who I think are the top 5 draft eligible quarterbacks in a previous post.  But let’s see what my math says about the quarterbacks that I see a lot of others putting at […]

  3. […] brings me back to my original point.  I’ve posted my top 5 quarterback prospects.  I’ve posted my top 5 receiver prospects.  I’ve posted which quarterbacks I think […]

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